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Inondations en Allemagne et Belgique: le réchauffement climatique est bien en cause

Inondations en Allemagne et Belgique: le réchauffement climatique est bien en cause

Le réchauffement climatique a renforcé la probabilité et l’intensité des inondations qui ont ravagé l’Allemagne et la Belgique en juillet, faisant plus de 200 morts et des milliards d’euros de dégâts, selon une étude rendue publique mardi.

La survenue d’un tel épisode extrême sur ces régions a été rendue jusqu’à 9 fois plus probable par le réchauffement dû à l’activité humaine, avec au moins 20% de probabilité supplémentaire. Le changement climatique a également “fait augmenter la quantité de pluie sur une journée d’entre 3% et 19%”, selon les scientifiques du World Weather Attribution (WWA), qui regroupe des experts de divers instituts de recherche dans le monde.

Il s’agit de la deuxième étude pointant clairement le réchauffement dans les catastrophes naturelles qui se sont multipliées cet été. Le WWA avait déjà calculé que le “dôme de chaleur” qui a suffoqué le Canada et l’Ouest américain fin juin aurait été “presque impossible” sans les effets du changement climatique.

Début août, les experts climat de l’ONU (Giec) avaient eux aussi sonné l’alarme dans un rapport choc, pointant un réchauffement de la planète encore plus rapide et plus fort qu’on ne le craignait, menaçant l’humanité de désastres “sans précédent”. Le seuil de +1,5°C – objectif idéal à ne pas dépasser selon l’accord de Paris – pourrait ainsi être atteint autour de 2030, soit 10 ans plus tôt qu’estimé.

Les effets dévastateurs – sécheresses, incendies ou inondations – se font déjà sentir à travers le monde. Les 14 et 15 juillet, de fortes inondations causées par des pluies diluviennes avaient ainsi fait au moins 190 morts en Allemagne et 38 en Belgique.

L’Allemagne va devoir consacrer 30 milliards d’euros à la reconstruction des zones sinistrées et la catastrophe y a placé la question de l’urgence climatique au centre du débat public à quelques semaines d’élections décisives fin septembre pour la succession de la chancelière Angela Merkel.

La multiplication des précipitations est une conséquence attendue du réchauffement

L’épisode a “largement battu les records de précipitations historiquement enregistrés” sur les zones touchées, soulignent les chercheurs.

La multiplication des précipitations est une conséquence attendue du réchauffement, puisqu’un phénomène physique fait augmenter l’humidité de l’atmosphère d’environ 7% pour chaque degré supplémentaire.

Les auteurs ont fait tourner différents modèles pour estimer comment le réchauffement a affecté le volume maximal de précipitations sur une durée de un ou deux jours dans les régions les plus touchées, bassins des rivières Ahr et Erft en Allemagne et de la vallée de la Meuse en Belgique. Mais aussi sur une région plus vaste recouvrant ces deux pays, ainsi que les Pays-Bas voisins, affectés dans une moindre mesure.

Ils ont observé une “tendance à un renforcement”, même si demeure une “grande variabilité” d’une année sur l’autre. Et évalué la probabilité de survenue en Europe occidentale d’un épisode comme celui de juillet à une fois tous les 400 ans. Soit concrètement, une chance sur 400 chaque année qu’une telle catastrophe se produise.

Et ils “deviendront encore plus courants” si le réchauffement se poursuit, souligne l’étude.

Il est en conséquence “important de savoir comment nous réduisons la vulnérabilité à ces épisodes et leurs impacts”, a souligné un des auteurs, Maarten van Aalst, directeur du Centre Climatique de la Croix-Rouge et du Croissant-Rouge. Car “malheureusement, les gens sont souvent prêts… mais pour le précédent désastre”.

AFP

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