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Comment expliquer la réussite du Royaume-Uni dans l’éolien offshore ?

Comment expliquer la réussite du Royaume-Uni dans l’éolien offshore ?

Longtemps symbole d’un pays qui s’est développé par le charbon, le Royaume-Uni fait désormais figure de modèle en matière de transition énergétique. Le charbon, qui produisait les deux tiers de l’électricité dans les années 1980 et 36 % en 2013, représente désormais moins de 4 % du total. En 2019, la production d’électricité britannique issue d’énergies renouvelables a dépassé pour la première fois au troisième trimestre celle générée par les hydrocarbures. Une première depuis 1882. La production de charbon devrait même disparaître d’ici à 2025 selon le gouvernement.

En parallèle, le Royaume-Uni est devenu une des références mondiales dans les énergies marines renouvelables en l’espace d’une vingtaine d’années. Avec 8 483 MW installés en 2019, il fait figure de leader incontesté de l’éolien en mer. 1 200 MW de capacités nouvelles seront délivrées cette année avec la mise en service du parc éolien de Hornsea Project One, l’un des plus puissants au monde.

À l’heure où la France revoit à la hausse ses ambitions dans l’éolien en mer, comment expliquer la réussite du Royaume-Uni dans cette filière énergétique ?

Une solution pour décarboner l’économie

Le Royaume-Uni a su profiter des opportunités offertes par les accords de Kyoto et les directives européennes en matière d’énergies renouvelables pour redéfinir au tournant des années 2000 sa politique énergétique et acquérir la maîtrise de nouvelles technologies propres.

Un premier livre blanc sur l’énergie est présenté en 2003 par le gouvernement travailliste de Tony Blair, avec un objectif de réduction des émissions de carbone de 60 % d’ici 2050. L’énergie éolienne doit alors représenter 10 % de la production d’électricité à l’horizon 2010, contre 3 % en 2003.

Des subventions sont mises en place et les deux premiers appels d’offres pour l’éolien en mer voient le jour. Sélectionnant 17 projets pour 1,5 GW de production, le premier round (2001) permet de clarifier le cadre réglementaire. Le second round (2003) mène à l’attribution de 15 autres sites d’un potentiel de 7,2 GW de capacité installée. L’éolien offshore passe au Royaume-Uni à une échelle industrielle.

En vertu des nouvelles directives européennes en matière environnementale, le gouvernement de Gordon Brown présente en 2008 le Climate Change Act qui doit engager le pays sur un objectif de réduction de 80 % des émissions de CO2 entre 1990 et 2050. Un plan de plus de 126 milliards d’euros est proposé pour faire passer la part du renouvelable à 15 % dans la consommation totale du pays à l’horizon 2020 (électricité, chauffage et transport), contre 1,3 % en 2005. L’ambition de ce plan exige alors l’installation de 7 000 nouvelles éoliennes, dont 3 000 en mer.

La production d’électricité à partir d’énergies renouvelables au Royaume-Uni passe de 1,8 % en 2002 à 6,8 % en 2010. Avec 598 MW de puissance éolienne installée et 2 106 MW approuvée, le pays devient en 2008 le leader mondial de l’éolien marin. En septembre 2010, la plus grande ferme éolienne offshore au monde (300 MW) est inaugurée à Thanet au large des côtes du Kent.

Cette stratégie britannique tournée vers l’éolien en mer se veut une réponse à un double défi : d’une part la nécessité de réviser un modèle énergétique en misant sur des énergies décarbonées, et d’autre part, la dépendance énergétique croissante du Royaume-Uni envers l’étranger du fait de l’épuisement annoncé des réserves en mer du Nord. Le pays prend conscience qu’il est désormais dépendant du volatil marché mondial du gaz et d’un parc de centrales électriques vieillissant.

Cette prise de conscience s’accompagne au même moment d’une relance de l’énergie nucléaire, la majorité des réacteurs nucléaires du Royaume-Uni devant alors être arrêtés d’ici à 2023. Cette stratégie de « low carbon transition » conduira au lancement du projet EPR d’Hinkley Point en 2012.

L’ère de la maturité industrielle

Arrivé au pouvoir en mai 2010, le premier ministre David Cameron ne remet pas en question l’engouement des travaillistes pour l’éolien en mer, malgré des critiques de plus en plus prononcées contre les énergies renouvelables (jugées trop onéreuses) et l’attrait des conservateurs pour le nucléaire et les gaz non conventionnels. En 2011 est lancé un troisième appel d’offres. Parmi les 9 projets retenus, seuls deux parcs sont inférieurs à 1 GW de capacité. L’éolien offshore entre au Royaume-Uni dans l’ère des mégaprojets et de la maturité industrielle. Cette ambitieuse politique énergétique s’accompagne par la mise en place d’une politique volontariste en matière de R&D dans les nouvelles technologies énergétiques.

Dévoilé le 7 mars 2019 par la ministre de l’Énergie Claire Perry, le contrat de filière pour l’éolien en mer encourage un développement massif de cette industrie, soutient les entreprises nationales du secteur et promeut l’exportation. Le Royaume-Uni, qui veut rester le premier marché européen en la matière, vise à atteindre 30 % de son mix électrique en 2030 produit par l’éolien offshore. Pour y parvenir, le gouvernement annonce en octobre 2019 le lancement d’un quatrième round d’une capacité combinée d’au moins 7 GW. Dans une période politiquement délicate, l’éolien en mer est présenté comme une opportunité de croissance économique dans une perspective post-Brexit pour le conservateur Boris Johnson.

Cet emballement pour l’éolien offshore en outre-Manche a eu des conséquences économiques considérables sur la filière. Le coût de production de l’électricité issu de l’éolien offshore s’est effondré ces dernières années au Royaume-Uni. Si les prix se négociaient en 2011 autour de 187 euros, les dernières enchères ont vu des prix divisés par quatre, jusqu’à 45 euros, coût de raccordement au réseau compris.

Ces prix se situent en deçà du prix de gros moyen de l’électricité, situé à 50 euros, et bien au-dessous du prix de 109 euros, sur lequel a tablé EDF en 2013 pour l’EPR d’Hinkley Point. Ils sont devenus si bas que les parcs éoliens pourraient produire de l’électricité à un prix plus avantageux que les centrales au gaz existantes dès 2023. Les facteurs déterminants dans la réduction des coûts ont été les volumes soutenus des appels d’offres, l’augmentation de la taille de la turbine et l’évolution exponentielle de la taille des parcs.

L’éolien marin, un relais de croissance

Au-delà des questions liées à ces enjeux énergétiques et environnementaux, le déclin des activités pétrolières en mer du Nord est l’une des principales raisons de cet engouement pour l’éolien offshore. Même si les productions de la mer du Nord semblent connaître une nouvelle phase de croissance, elle reste une des zones du globe les plus marquées par le déclin pétrolier.

Entre juillet 2014 et février 2016, le cours du Brent a chuté de 110 à 35$ par baril, son plus bas niveau depuis 2003. Cette crise énergétique marque fortement un pays déjà sonné par la crise économique et accélère la prise de conscience de la nécessité d’une reconversion du modèle industriel du Royaume-Uni. En 2017, le pays comptait 302 200 emplois (directs, indirects et induits) dans le secteur pétrolier et gazier. Il en comptait 463 900 en 2014.

Le démantèlement des plates-formes pétrolières et l’éolien en mer vont constituer une opportunité de relais d’activité en mer du Nord. Cette stratégie de diversification vise à trouver des complémentarités entre une industrie ancienne et une industrie émergente afin d’accélérer le processus de maturation de l’éolien offshore. Les entreprises sont à la recherche d’un relai de croissance future. Cette dynamique de redéploiement est particulièrement visible dans la ville écossaise d’Aberdeen. La chute du cours du baril a eu en effet des effets dévastateurs sur la capitale écossaise des hydrocarbures, incitant les groupes pétroliers à réduire leurs investissements et leurs personnels. Le centre européen de déploiement éolien offshore (EOWDC) et ses 11 éoliennes de 8 MW au large d’Aberdeen matérialisent aujourd’hui cette transition dans le paysage écossais.

Le Royaume-Uni est ainsi devenu un terrain de jeux des multinationales du pétrole pour tester de nouvelles technologies, à l’image de l’entreprise Equinor et son parc d’éoliennes flottantes inauguré en Écosse en 2017.

Le Royaume-Uni, leader mondial de l’éolien offshore

Les particularités territoriales ont pour principale conséquence d’accroître la diversité du processus d’innovation, en favorisant le développement de trajectoire territorialisée. La géographie physique du Royaume-Uni (qui possède le deuxième gisement éolien d’Europe) explique en grande partie son dynamisme dans l’éolien en mer.

On aurait toutefois tort de se limiter à un simple déterminisme géographique des ressources naturelles. Si l’éolien en mer se développe rapidement au Royaume-Uni, ce n’est pas parce que le pays est scientifiquement en avance, mais avant tout parce que cette innovation doit résoudre des problèmes économiques qui s’y posent avec d’avantage d’acuité qu’ailleurs.

Au Royaume-Uni, c’est une double temporalité de l’urgence qui explique le succès de l’éolien offshore. Une urgence environnementale, obligeant à trouver des alternatives rapides au charbon, et une urgence industrielle, pour espérer sauver des milliers d’emplois issus de l’industrie du gaz et du pétrole. C’est dans cette temporalité qu’un consensus politique s’est constitué au Royaume-Uni autour des énergies renouvelables. Une solide expérience en matière de pétrole offshore a permis d’avancer rapidement dans l’encadrement des projets éoliens en mer (schéma de planification et mise en place d’une réglementation propre).

Le Royaume-Uni a ainsi réussi à tirer parti d’un portefeuille de ressources et compétences accessibles pour se hisser comme une des locomotives européennes de la révolution industrielle verte.

Sylvain Roche :Docteur en sciences économiques,

spécialiste des énergies marines et de la croissance bleue, Université de Bordeaux

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