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Ce qui émerge dans l’émergence de l’Afrique

Ce qui émerge dans l’émergence de l’Afrique

Depuis quelques années, le terme « émergence » est employé pour définir ce qui serait la nouvelle trajectoire de l’Afrique subsaharienne. Ce terme a remplacé le mot « développement » qui fait aujourd’hui complètement « has been ». Au XXe siècle, l’Afrique subsaharienne était censée se développer ; au XXIe siècle elle est censée émerger. Ainsi, sur 54 pays africains, 37 ont lancé un plan visant à devenir un « émergent » à moyen terme.

L’émergence signifie que des mutations socio-économiques profondes sont à l’œuvre. L’urbanisation est rapide et change les modes de vie. Une classe moyenne fait son apparition. Les perspectives de croissance des économies africaines – qui sont qualifiées de « lions » ou d’« éléphants » en fonction des rapports – sont prometteuses et pérennes. Les entrepreneurs africains innovent et créent de nouveaux biens et des services grâce aux technologies numériques qui connectent les Africains à d’autres mondes. Les femmes africaines luttent pour améliorer leur statut dans la société.

Mais le nouveau concept d’émergence résume-t-il vraiment la trajectoire de l’Afrique depuis le début du XXIe siècle alors que les bienfaits de la globalisation sont de plus en plus mis en doute, qu’une nouvelle crise de la dette pointe à l’horizon et que des centaines de milliers d’Africains fuient le continent au péril de leur vie ?

Qu’est-ce que l’émergence ?

Depuis plus d’une décennie, ce concept domine le discours sur l’Afrique et une conférence sur l’émergence a lieu chaque année à l’initiative du président de la Côte d’Ivoire, Alassane Ouattara.

L’émergence se caractérise par :

  • un taux de croissance à deux chiffres ;
  • la formation d’un marché de consommation et de son corollaire sociologique, une classe moyenne autrefois inconnue ;
  • un regain d’investissements privés importants qui signale l’attractivité des marchés africains ;
  • l’accès d’une part grandissante de la population aux nouvelles technologies de la communication.

Entre 2001 et 2010, six des dix pays avec le taux de croissance économique le plus élevé au monde étaient africains : l’Angola (1er), le Nigeria (4e), l’Éthiopie (5e), le Tchad (7e), le Mozambique (8e) et le Rwanda (10e).

Les nouvelles technologies se répandent à un rythme soutenu en Afrique avec un taux de pénétration de l’Internet mobile qui doit passer pendant la période 2016-2020 de 26 % à 38 % de la population. Et dans un rapport qui est devenu célèbre (« Le milieu de la pyramide : les dynamiques de la classe moyenne africaine »), la Banque africaine de développement (BAD) estimait en 2011 qu’environ 370 millions Africains appartenaient à la classe moyenne, soit 34 % de la population du continent. Bref, l’émergence est une façon de dire que l’Afrique se met au diapason des évolutions du XXIe siècle.

L’émergence à la loupe

Comme tout phénomène nouveau, l’émergence a son observatoire.

En 2017, un think tank d’experts africains, l’Observatoire pour l’émergence en Afrique, a rendu public la première édition de son « index de l’émergence en Afrique ». Ce travail fournit une définition de l’émergence et pratique le classement par indicateurs.

L’émergence est définie comme « un processus de transformation économique soutenue qui se traduit par des performances aux plans social et humain, et qui prend place dans un contexte politique et institutionnel stable susceptible d’en assurer la soutenabilité ». L’index de l’émergence est une tentative d’objectiver le processus d’émergence avec des indicateurs empruntés à d’autres outils d’évaluation tels que l’indicateur de développement humain du PNUD et les indicateurs de gouvernance institutionnelle développés par la Banque mondiale.

L’index de l’émergence en Afrique établit ainsi une classification des pays africains en les qualifiant d’« émergent », de « seuil », de « potentiel », ou « autre ». Selon cet index, il n’y aurait que 11 pays émergents en Afrique sur 54. Les résultats sont, par ailleurs, très contrastés non seulement selon les régions du continent mais à l’intérieur même de ces régions.

En 2018, quid de l’émergence ?

En 2018, que reste-t-il de la croissance pérenne et des champions de l’émergence d’il y a dix ans : Mozambique, Angola, Nigeria, Éthiopie, Tchad et Rwanda ? 

Parmi eux, le Rwanda est le seul à confirmer dans la durée ses bonnes performances (taux moyen de croissance du PIB de 8 % de 2001 à 2015, réduction du taux de pauvreté de 44 à 39 %, etc.).

Après avoir tenté de dissimuler au moins deux milliards de dollars d’emprunts, le Mozambique est en pleine crise de surendettement ; l’Angola est passé d’un taux de croissance du PIB de 20 % en 2006 à 1 % en 2017 et a frôlé le défaut de paiement ; le Nigeria – qui est entré en récession en 2016 (-1,6 %) sous l’effet de la chute des cours du baril – n’en sort que très timidement en 2017 (+0,8 %) ; l’Éthiopie connaît une crise politique complexe depuis 2015 ; et le Tchad, producteur de pétrole depuis le début du siècle, fait la manche auprès des pays du Golfe arabique et vient s’ajouter à la longue liste des pays qui peinent à payer leurs fonctionnaires. Les marges de manœuvre budgétaires de ces gouvernements sont réduites à peu de choses après deux ou trois années extrêmement difficiles.

La classe moyenne revue et corrigée

En ce qui concerne les classes moyennes africaines érigées en symbole du dynamisme du continent et en nouveau marché prometteur du capitalisme de consommation, l’enthousiasme initial du rapport de la BAD en 2011 a été tempéré par d’autres études.

En effet, pour la BAD, un Africain appartient à la classe moyenne lorsque son revenu quotidien est compris entre 2,2 et 20 dollars. Mais appartenir à la classe moyenne ne signifie pas seulement être capable de se nourrir, de se loger et de se vêtir aujourd’hui mais aussi demain et les jours qui suivent. Par conséquent, selon d’autres travaux, il est plus exact de mettre la barre monétaire de la classe moyenne à partir d’un revenu de 12 dollars par jour.

Du coup, le poids de la classe moyenne africaine sur le continent s’approcherait davantage des 13 % que des 34 %, représentant près de 143 millions d’Africains… Ce n’est donc plus un Africain sur trois qui appartiendrait à la classe moyenne mais un sur dix. Une classe moyenne africaine émerge (les Cheetahs au Kenya, les Black Diamonds en Afrique du Sud), mais les pauvres restent encore très majoritaires.

La dépendance économique, paradigme fondamental de l’Afrique

Le paradigme de la dépendance change mais persiste. Des trois facteurs-clés de la croissance économique (technologie, capital et travail), deux viennent d’ailleurs.

Les inventions de la troisième révolution industrielle qui changent le quotidien des Africains n’ont pas eu lieu en Afrique. De même, les transferts financiers des migrants, les investissements directs étrangers et l’aide publique au développement représentent 2,5 fois le montant des capitaux privés investis par le secteur privé du continent.

Qu’il s’agisse d’un pays avec de bonnes performances comme le Rwanda ou d’un des pays les plus pauvres du monde comme le Burundi, l’aide étrangère continue d’assurer une part substantielle de leur budget national et donc de la viabilité financière des États africains. Pour le premier, celle-ci évolue entre 30 et 40 % du budget national, tandis qu’avant la suspension de l’aide des bailleurs européens en 2016, celle-ci représentait plus de 50 % du budget burundais.

Du XXe au XXIe siècle, la dépendance de l’Afrique est résiliente et elle présente toujours les mêmes symptômes. Ainsi, les pays producteurs de matières premières (hydrocarbures et minerais) n’ont pas profité de la décennie des cours élevés pour diversifier leur économie et restent prisonniers de l’évolution cyclique du marché des matières premières. Les accès de nationalisme des ressources des gouvernants quand les cours remontent dissimule mal les rentes personnelles qu’ils retirent de cette servitude volontaire.

Le surendettement qui a frappé les économies africaines dans les années 80 est de retour. Selon le FMI, huit pays sont en situation de surendettement (dont celui qui était la « success story » économique du continent, le Mozambique) et autant présentent un risque élevé d’y basculer. La dette publique en Afrique subsaharienne représentait 45 % du PIB fin 2017, en hausse de 40 % en trois ans ! Le gouvernement chinois qui est désormais le grand prêteur de l’Afrique s’inquiète maintenant ouvertement de la non-solvabilité de certains gouvernements africains.

La bonne vieille dépendance a néanmoins changé de visage : au XXIe siècle, ceux dont les gouvernements africains dépendent ne sont plus les mêmes. Dans un contexte où l’aide publique occidentale diminue tendanciellement et où les gouvernements occidentaux se désengagent d’Afrique (sauf évidemment en ce qui concerne la lutte contre les djihadistes), d’autres prêteurs (chinois ou arabes) et les multinationales sont devenues les nouveaux maîtres du jeu, comme l’a appris le président tchadien Idriss Déby à ses dépens.

De quoi l’émergence est-elle le nom ?

L’émergence apparaît simultanément comme une actualisation du vocabulaire, l’autre mot pour dire « développement » au siècle de la globalisation, comme un concept déjà dépassé qui ne parlerait que de la première décennie de ce siècle et comme un coup de marketing par définition éphémère.

Pourtant elle met au grand jour d’importantes et durables réalités :

  • L’émergence est avant tout un rattrapage. Si le continent africain émerge, c’est aussi le dernier à le faire. En 2014, avec un milliard d’habitants, la production d’électricité sur le continent s’élevait à 80 GW, soit l’équivalent de celle de la Corée du Sud qui compte 51 millions d’habitants. De même, l’Afrique subsaharienne est le dernier continent qui se met à produire l’invention symbole du XXe siècle : l’automobile. Le rattrapage est certes en cours avec une timide reprise de la croissance depuis 2017 mais, compte tenu du fait que le reste du monde évolue économiquement et technologiquement de plus en plus vite, la course sera longue et probablement pas en ligne droite mais plutôt en zigzags.
  • La question de la gouvernance publique reste centrale pour réduire la dépendance. Cela exige un gouvernement intègre, volontariste et capable d’agir dans la longue durée pour développer de manière endogène les facteurs de croissance. À ce titre, la formation de la main-d’œuvre africaine devrait être une priorité réelle au lieu d’être un engagement cosmétique des gouvernements.
  • Après avoir été l’arrière-cour des puissances européennes et de leurs rivalités au XIXe siècle, l’Afrique est au XXIe siècle l’arrière-cour des puissances émergentes et de leurs rivalités. Depuis le début du siècle, la Chine, le Brésil, l’Inde, la Turquie, la Corée du Sud, etc., ont développé de nouvelles relations multidimensionnelles avec les pays africains, y compris pour certains d’entre eux des relations militaires. La lutte entre le Qatar et l’Arabie saoudite résonne jusqu’au Sahel et dans la Corne de l’Afrique grâce à la diplomatie du pétrodollar à l’égard de gouvernements africains ayant désespérément besoin d’argent et prêts à se louer à un camp ou un autre.

Ce qui émerge de l’Afrique : la puissance des autres et plus particulièrement de la Chine

L’Afrique est le lieu où les vrais émergents (asiatiques et arabes) projettent en premier leur nouvelle puissance et s’offrent de nouvelles clientèles dans le cadre d’une compétition acharnée. Même les vieilles puissances sur le retour (comme la Russie) y font aujourd’hui leur come-back.

À ce jeu, la Chine reste en tête. Pendant ces 20 dernières années, sa croissance l’a rendu avide de matières premières africaines et elle est désormais le premier partenaire commercial et premier bailleur bilatéral du continent.

Paradoxalement, ce qui émerge derrière l’émergence de l’Afrique, c’est avant tout la puissance chinoise. Or dans un continent très dépendant financièrement, la position dominante chinoise n’est pas sans conséquence politique pour les Africains, y compris en termes de politique intérieure. Les appuis qu’apporte Pékin au régime du président Kabila contre son peuple, en République démocratique du Congo (RDC), et la bienveillance de la Chine à l’égard de la mise à l’écart du président Mugabe au Zimbabwe sont les premiers indices d’ingérence de la part d’une nouvelle puissance internationale qui se targue d’être non impérialiste par nature mais s’implante militairement sur le continent et joue de sa domination économique quand bon lui semble.

Pratiquée par les Occidentaux et l’URSS pendant la Guerre froide, la diplomatie du portefeuille et du clientélisme a encore de beaux jours devant elle dans une Afrique qui « émerge » lentement.

Thierry Vircoulon

Enseignant en sécurité et conflit en Afrique, Sciences Po – USPC

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