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[CORONAVIRUS, LE JOUR D’APRÈS] RÉHUMANISER LA FINANCE POUR CHANGER LES PARAMÉTRAGES DU TRADING À HAUTE FRÉQUENCE

[CORONAVIRUS, LE JOUR D’APRÈS] RÉHUMANISER LA FINANCE POUR CHANGER LES PARAMÉTRAGES DU TRADING À HAUTE FRÉQUENCE

Depuis le 20 février, les bourses mondiales ont perdu en moyenne 30 %, suivant des phases de chutes vertigineuses suivies de temporaires remontées. La cause est le recours massif au trading à haute fréquence, géré par des algorithmes préprogrammés qui surréagissent au moindre signal négatif. Pour y remédier, il faudra réintroduire de l’humain et de l’analyse à long terme.Mise en lumière par la crise sanitaire actuelle.

Il faut avoir le cœur bien accroché pour suivre les variations boursières de ces derniers jours. Elles provoquent les mêmes sensations que les Grand 8 de fête foraine, une descente accélérée suivie d’une remontée plus lente dès qu’un signal positif est envoyé. Les marchés financiers qui sont en réalité aujourd’hui majoritairement pilotés par des ordinateurs, répondent à des stimuli pour lesquels ils ont été programmés. Le Covid 19 n’en fait pas partie mais il offre une chance de revenir aux fondamentaux de l’analyse financière.

Les États-Unis annoncent un plan de relance de 2000 milliards de dollars et l’indice boursier américain reprend dans la foulée 13 % alors qu’il était jusque-là en chute libre. Comment vont être allouées ces sommes colossales ? Vont-elles servir à renflouer les grandes entreprises cotées qui ont perdu plusieurs dizaines de milliers de milliards de capitalisation ou cibler plus directement les Américains pour qu’ils continuent à consommer pour nourrir le principal moteur de la croissance de leur pays ? Dans quelle mesure le plan de relance pourrait aider à renforcer le système de santé qui en l’état actuel expose le pays à une hécatombe liée au COVID 19 ?

Des millions d’ordres traités à la nanoseconde

Toutes ces questions politiques, environnementales et sociales n’intéressent pas les ordinateurs à l’œuvre dans ce qu’on appelle le High Frequency Trading (HFT). Ce trading à haute fréquence représente les trois quarts des échanges sur les marchés américains et près de la moitié en Europe. Reposant sur le traitement à la nanoseconde d’ordres de ventes et d’achats passés en très grand nombre sur les marchés financiers du monde entier, le HFT est réservé à des acteurs très puissants, financièrement et techniquement. Ils doivent être capables de disposer des équipements nécessaires pour passer des volumes d’ordres colossaux en même temps et de programmer des algorithmes très complexes qui, de plus, doivent être régulièrement actualisés.

Comme l’explique pédagogiquement le site ABC Bourse ,  les paramètres qui déterminent la puissance de feu de ce type d’outils sont l’algorithme de management des ordres et le management du risque. Dans le premier cas l’algorithme de placement des ordres est un point primordial qui peut rendre un système gagnant ou perdant. Tout résidera dans la programmation de cette “boîte noire”. Dans le second cas il faut savoir fixer des limites de gains et de pertes“.

La programmation de la boîte noire est donc la clef qui explique en grande partie les variations boursières actuelles. On comprend alors qu’un tweet de Donald Trump a un impact immédiat alors que la mise en place d’une stratégie résiliente et durable par une entreprise donnée laissera le marché de marbre. Dans le premier cas, il s’agit d’un signal envoyé immédiatement à des milliards de serveurs, dans le second il s’agit d’un plan stratégique à moyen long terme dont l’analyse des impacts n’est pas intégrée dans le système du HFT pour qui le long terme est à 24 heures.

Un métier sans humains

Pour changer la donne, il faudrait donc reprogrammer ses boîtes noires pour y réintroduire des données ESG, c’est-à-dire la mesure d’impacts sociaux et environnementaux d’une activité ou d’un service donné, le tout sur un horizon beaucoup plus long. En l’état actuel de la qualité des données disponibles, encore très éloignées de modèles mathématiques, la seule possibilité serait de redonner de la valeur à l’analyse financière fondamentale.

Cette évaluation de la stratégie des entreprises doit être faite par des humains qualifiés et formés aux spécificités de tel ou tel secteur. Ce n’est pas la direction que prenait le secteur bancaire avant la crise du COVID 19, qui licenciait massivement en Europe, plus de 100 000 emplois avaient disparu ces derniers mois.  

Pour que le jour d’après ne ressemble pas au jour d’avant, il faudrait donc reparamétrer le secteur financier pour le conduire à considérer ses ressources humaines comme un capital précieux à préserver et non une variable d’ajustement à réduire en cas de crise majeure, quitte à ne pas être capable de se relever pour le coup d’après, celui où la finance durable, plus résiliente, pourrait devenir la pratique dominante.

NVTC

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